Key Takeaways

• Forced carries are more difficult for shorter hitters, less-skilled golfers and golfers playing in outings.
  
  
• Forced carries of more than 100 yards were too difficult for the majority of female players in this study.
  
  
• Golfers playing in outings had a much lower success rate on forced carries than members or their guests at the two courses studied. Outing setup should take this into account if forced carries are present.
  
  
• The length of a forced carry and the hole location have an influence on success rate.
  
  
• The USGA has developed a tee selection guide that accounts for challenges like forced carries and helps golfers adjust their chosen playing length to match the difficulty of a particular course.
   

Methodology

As each golfer played the holes of interest, USGA staff recorded their distance from the flagstick as they came into range of the forced carry to the green. Because the flagstick was used as the reference point and typically changes daily, adjustments were made using hole location sheets to determine the distance from each shot to the center of the green. These adjustments make day-to-day measurements directly comparable.

We also recorded the golfers’ gender and judged whether they were attempting to make the forced carry or to layup. The outcome of each shot was recorded as a success or a failure after the attempt. Shots were considered a success if the golfer accomplished their objective related to the forced carry. For example, if the golfer attempts a carry and the shot lands in the penalty area, it was recorded as a failure. Alternatively, if the golfer attempts to layup and the ball ends up short of the penalty area, it is recorded as a success.

Attempted Forced Carry Frequency by Distance

This section breaks down how frequently different types of golfers attempted to make the forced carries from varying distances.

By Gender

There was a clear difference in how male and female golfers handled the forced carry situations. In Figure 1, it can be seen that females generally layup at shorter distances than males. For example, at 125 yards away from the green, only 5% of females will attempt the carry compared to about 88% of males.

We can also see where forced carry distance starts to impact golfer strategy. Female golfer decision-making is affected starting about 50-60 yards from the hole. By 90-95 yards, nearly half of female golfers are laying up and by 150 yards, virtually all female golfers layup. Male golfer decision-making begins to be impacted at 60-70 yards from the hole. By about 180 yards, nearly half of male golfers are laying up and it is not until over 250 yards that virtually all male golfers layup.

By Skill

Trends in forced carry behavior are also a function of skill. In Figure 2 below, “Hogan” refers to the highest-skilled group of male players in this study, “Regular” refers to normal member and guest play with a range of skill levels, and “Outing” golfers were all male players who participated in one of three Monday outings. “Regular” golfers accounted for 56% of observed shots (752 shots), “Hogan” golfers 13% (176 shots), and “Outing” golfers 31% (424 shots). The study showed that lower-skilled male golfers generally layup at shorter distances than highly skilled male golfers, which would be expected. For instance, at 150 yards from the green, 55% of “Outing” golfers attempted the forced carry, 77% of “Regular” members and guests attempted to carry, and over 90% of the highly skilled “Hogan” golfers attempt to carry.

Success Rates on Forced Carries by Distance

By Gender

Figure 3 below demonstrates gender differences in success rate on forced carries. There is a sharper decline in success rate for female golfers compared to males as distance from the green increases. At 75 yards, females have a 55% success rate on carries compared to an 85% success rate for males. By 100 yards, female success rate drops to 30% versus males being over 80%, which reinforces the disproportionate effect of forced carries on shorter-hitting golfers.

By Skill

Similar trends can be seen when breaking down the results based on the skill level of male golfers. Figure 4 shows that the highest-skilled male golfers have higher success rates on carries compared to lower-skilled golfers. At 150 yards away from the center of the green, 90% of high-skilled golfers succeed on the carry compared to 70% success for male member and guest play and 31% success for male golfers from outings.

Conclusions From Study 1

These results highlight the differences in how players with various hitting distances and skill levels are affected by forced carries. Once the distance to the center of the green over a forced carry reaches 100-125 yards, the vast majority of female golfers in this study would either layup short of the penalty area or would be unsuccessful in attempting the carry. Male golfers playing in outings during this study attempted the carry 55% of the time at 150 yards and were successful 31% of the time from that distance. Contrasting these results with those from highly skilled male players who participated in a one-day tournament illustrates the challenge of designing and setting up a golf course for a wide range of players.

Based on the results, a forced carry of more than 100 yards should be avoided if female golfers and others with slower swing speeds will be affected. At 75 yards, 45% of female golfers attempting forced carries were still unsuccessful. For male golfers, the success rate for a 150-yard shot to a green over a forced carry ranged from 90% for highly skilled players, 70% for member and guest play, to 30% for outing play. The performance variation at different distances points to thresholds that can be useful for architects as they design holes with forced carries and for those tasked with course setup for daily play and events. For example, if an outing is likely to be comprised of less-skilled players who are not familiar with the course, it may be wise to move the tees on holes with forced carries farther forward for that event to give players the best chance possible and to expedite pace of play by minimizing the number of layup shots and failed attempts at the carry.

When it comes to challenging highly skilled male golfers with forced carries, approximately 75% of those players attempted a forced carry of 200 yards and they were successful more than 75% of the time at that distance. From 150 yards, this group of players successfully made the carry 90% of the time. This points to a threshold at or above 200 yards for a forced carry approach to have a significant impact on the strategy and scoring of highly skilled male golfers.

Study 2: Par-3 Island Green

To build on the results of the initial forced carry study, a second study focused on an extreme example of a forced carry scenario – an island green par 3. Over the course of a full golf season in 2024, a researcher recorded the shot results of 841 golfers playing the island green par-3 15th hole at Savannah Quarters Country Club in Pooler, Georgia. Tee shot distance on this hole to the middle of the green ranges from 96 yards from the shortest tee to 138 yards from the back tee. The green is larger than average, measuring about 46 yards long by 25 yards wide with roughly 9,000-10,000 square feet of area. The band of short grass and rough surrounding the green is about 3-5 yards wide from the edge of the green to the water, adding additional area for shots to land safely.

Methodology

Observations were made near the 15th tee without engaging with the golfers. Each golfer’s apparent gender was recorded. While we did not have access to the golfers’ Handicap Index, we were able to estimate their general skill level. Proximity to the tee also allowed the type of club to be discerned (iron, hybrid/wood or driver). The tee played (out of six tee options), the hole location and the shot result were also recorded. If the first tee shot failed, the number of retry attempts was recorded along with any change in club selection and whether the golfer was ultimately successful in getting a shot to stay on the green.

Sample of Golfers

A total of 841 golfers were observed playing the hole from February 15 to December 7, 2024. This group was 81% male and 19% female. Nearly 95% of female golfers played one of the two shortest tees with only about 5% playing one of the longer four tees available. Only one male golfer played the shortest tee, 33% played the second shortest tee, another 29% played the third longest tee and then the rest of the golfers (37%) were distributed across the longest three tees in decreasing frequency as the shot got longer. Ninety-nine percent of male golfers used an iron for their initial tee shot, regardless of which tee was played. Even though 95% of female golfers played one of the two shortest tees, nearly one-third used a hybrid, wood or driver for their initial tee shot. The majority of the golfers were either members or their guests. We also observed a few elite golfers in the group that were identifiable by their swing and ball-striking ability.

Results of Initial Tee Shot

For this study, success is defined as hitting a tee shot that ends up anywhere on the island, including rough and collar areas. Golfers were categorized as Members/Guests (83% of sample), Elite (15% of sample), or Outing (2% of sample) and the success rate for their initial shot varied significantly. Golfers classified as elite had an 85% success rate, while members and guests were successful 66% of the time (Figure 5). Outing guests struggled with only a 33% success rate.

The success and failure rates of the initial tee shot varied significantly by gender. The initial tee shot of male golfers was successful 73% of the time, compared to 47% for female golfers. The success rate by gender was further broken down by tee played. For every tee played, male success rates are higher than female success rates. Success rates between male and female golfers are closest on the tournament tees, presumably because highly skilled male and female players would be the ones generally selecting long tee shots on this hole and they would have comparably high rates of success. The success rate of female golfers is lowest for those playing the shortest tees and improves on the tees farther back. This shows that the forced carry is hardest for the shortest-hitting or least-skilled female golfers who don’t have an option to move any farther forward.

In this study, the green was divided laterally into three zones: left, middle and right. These zones were about 8 yards wide. The green was also divided longitudinally into three zones: front, middle and back. Each of these zones was about 15 yards in length. Combining the lateral and longitudinal sections yields nine zones across the green. Success rate varied significantly from zone to zone as shown in following graphic. The most dangerous zone was the front/right zone with only a 43% success rate. The highest success rates (75%-80%) occurred when hole locations were middle/middle, back/middle and back/left.

Conclusions From Study 2

Success rates in this study correlated closely with what would have been expected based on the data from Study 1. Overall, 68% of 841 first tee shots were successful. Male golfers had a 73% success rate while female golfers had a 47% success rate, showing that as in the previous study, forced carries are disproportionally challenging for female and shorter-hitting golfers. Female golfers playing the most-forward tee had the lowest success rate of the female players, showing that they simply did not have an option close enough to obtain a better result. Data from this study also pointed to the potential impact of hole location on success rate. With most failures winding up short of the green in this study (greater than 70% for females and 50% for males), it is likely that hole locations farther back encouraged players to hit longer shots that led to a higher success rate. The tendency of golfers to miss short more often than long on any type of approach shot is commonly observed and has even more impact in a forced carry situation. To increase the success rate of a forced carry on a particular day – e.g., during an outing – setup staff may want to place hole locations on greens with forced carries farther back to increase the chance of player success and improve pace of play.

Helping Players Account for Course Difficulty

Two key takeaways from these forced carry studies are that shorter hitters and players in outings have the greatest difficulty when it comes to handling forced carries. Length of carry also has a big impact on rate of success, so trying to help golfers reach a manageable point from which to attempt a forced carry is advantageous from the standpoint of providing a reasonable challenge and facilitating better pace of play.

The USGA is actively testing a system to help golfers select a tee that matches their skill level and hitting distance based on how far they hit their 7-iron. For courses that have adopted this system and golfers who choose to use it, it’s a substantial step forward in having more fun and playing the course as the designer intended. However, there is more to making a good tee selection than scorecard yardage alone. Some courses play longer or more difficult than others at the same total distance. The presence of forced carries can be a key factor that makes a course more difficult than others with a similar yardage. How do you adjust tee selection to account for such challenges? How do golfers know they should make an adjustment if they haven’t played the course before? The World Handicap System^® expresses this information in the Course Rating™ and Slope Rating™ numbers that golf courses are assigned, but few golfers understand what these metrics actually mean and there is currently no direct way to translate this information into a tee selection recommendation.

Course Playability and Obstacles

Accounting for difficulties like forced carries is an important part of choosing a set of tees that is a good fit for a golfer’s game. For example, the overall scorecard yardage might be reasonable for your skill level, but there could be several holes that feature forced carries that are too difficult from that set of tees. There are metrics within the Course Rating System that can help categorize courses by playability. During course rating, obstacles that the golfers face are evaluated based on the likelihood that an obstacle will come into play and the difficulty in recovering from the obstacle.

Using the available data, a method has been proposed and is being tested to put courses into five categories of course playability as shown in Table 1.

Most golfers can identify a course and tee that provides an enjoyable experience as a reference point. This would create the basis for their Standard Playing Length and Playability Category shown in Table 2. They can also use their typical score over par on an 18-hole course as a reference.

For example, a female golfer who scores 98 on average, or 26 over par on a par-72, 18-hole course would have a standard playing length of 4,400 yards on a Level 2 golf course (Straightforward/Easier). If that same golfer chose to play a Level 4 or “Demanding” course, they could use Table 3 below to adjust their recommended playing length for an equivalent experience. For this golfer, the chart shows -400 yards, so this golfer’s ideal playing length on a demanding course would be 4,000 yards and they would select the tee closest to this yardage.

As another example, suppose a highly skilled male golfer knows their preferred playing length is 6,425 yards on a Level 5 or “Formidable” course. On a certain day, they are playing a “Moderate” or Level 3 course, so their recommended playing length for that course would be +300 yards or 6,725 yards for an equivalent experience. The distance adjustments in this chart have been proposed based on experience from previous studies and are continuing to be refined.

How a Golf Facility Can Utilize This Information

Whether it’s new customers at a daily fee or resort course, guests of a member at a private facility, or people playing a course for the first time in an outing, there are many scenarios where golfers don’t know what they’re in for when they play a course. There are also many examples of players who know a course well but routinely choose a tee that is too far back for their playing ability because they are basing the decision on scorecard yardage rather than the unique challenges of that course.
This system can help golf courses communicate with golfers about course playability and help them choose a set of tees that fits their hitting distance and skill level given the challenges of that course. Simple signage can be posted to identify the playability level to golfers prior to teeing off. Staff in the golf shop or at the first tee can also be trained to engage with golfers to discuss their skill level and normal playing distances and how to adjust for the best possible playing experience at that course.