Appendix E Exceptional Tournament Score Probability Table

Net Differential

0-5

6-12

13-21

22-30

Greater than 30

0

5

5

6

5

5

-1

10

10

10

8

7

-2

23

22

21

13

10

-3

57

51

43

23

15

-4

151

121

87

40

22

-5

379

276

174

72

35

-6

790

536

323

130

60

-7

2349

1200

552

229

101

-8

20111

4467

1138

382

185

-9

48219

27877

3577

695

359

-10

125000

84300

37000

1650

874


The values in the table are the odds of shooting a net differential* EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN the number in the left column.

*A net differential is the subtraction of a player's Handicap Index from the Handicap Differential for a particular tournament score. This becomes a negative value when the player scores much better than the player's Handicap Index.

Example: A player with a Handicap Index of 10.5 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a USGA Course Rating of 71.2 and a Slope Rating of 126.

(74 - 71.2) = 2.8 x 113 / 126

= 2.5 Handicap Differential

2.5 - 10.5

= - 8.0 Net Differential


From the chart, the odds are 4,467 to 1 of this occurring.