Odds of Shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score


Handicap Index Ranges
Net Differential 5.9 or less 6.0-12.9 13.0-21.9 22.0-30.9 31.0 or greater
0 to -0.9 5 5 5 5 5
-1.0 to -1.9 10 10 10 8 7
-2.0 to -2.9 23 22 21 13 10
-3.0 to -3.9 57 51 43 23 15
-4.0 to -4.9 151 121 87 40 22
-5.0 to -5.9 379 276 174 72 35
-6.0 to -6.9 790 536 323 130 60
-7.0 to -7.9 2349 1200 552 229 101
-8.0 to -8.9 20111 4467 1138 382 185
-9.0 to -9.9 48219 27877 3577 695 359
-10 or less 125000 84300 37000 1650 874
The values in the table represent the probability of shooting a net differential* EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN the range in the left column.
*A net differential is the Handicap Differential for a particular score minus the player's Handicap Index. This becomes a negative value
differential for a score is lower than the player's Handicap Index.
Example: A player with a Handicap Index of 10.5 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a USGA Course Rating of 70.2 and a Slope Rating of 126.
 
 
74 – 70.2 = 3.8 x 113 / 126 = 3.4 Handicap Differential
3.4 – 10.5 = -7.1 Net Differential
 
From the chart, the probability is 1 in 1,200 of this occurring.