http://www.usga.org/Handicapping/handicap-manual.html#!rule-14410
false
Appendix E Exceptional Tournament Score Probability Table
Appendix E Exceptional Tournament Score Probability Table
Handicap Index Ranges
Net Differential
5.9 or less
6.0-12.9
13.0-21.9
22.0-30.9
31 or greater
0 to -0.9
5
5
5
5
5
-1.0 to -1.9
10
10
10
8
7
-2.0 to -2.9
23
22
21
13
10
-3.0 to -3.9
57
51
43
23
15
-4.0 to -4.9
151
121
87
40
22
-5.0 to -5.9
379
276
174
72
35
-6.0 to -6.9
790
536
323
130
60
-7.0 to -7.9
2349
1200
552
229
101
-8.0 to -8.9
20111
4467
1138
382
185
-9.0 to -9.9
48219
27877
3577
695
359
-10 or less
125000
84300
37000
1650
874
The values in the table represent the probability of shooting a net differential* EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN the range in the left column.
*A net differential is the Handicap Differential for a particular score minus the player's Handicap Index. This becomes a negative value when the differential for a score is lower than the player's Handicap Index.
Example: A player with a Handicap Index of 10.5 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a USGA Course Rating of 70.2 and a Slope Rating of 126.
(74 - 70.2) = 3.8 x 113 / 126
= 3.4 Handicap Differential
3.4 - 10.5
= - 7.1 Net Differential
From the chart, the probability is 1 in 1,200 of this occurring.